Monday 10 March 2014

Insanity

Image courtesy of according2sources.com

As Baseline Leaner favourite Albert Einstein may or may not have mused, the definition of insanity can be explained as: "Doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different outcome." Whether the G.O.A.T. theoretical physicist is actually responsible for that poignant piece of behavioural analysis can be debated elsewhere - we're more concerned with the lesson contained within.

(Updated for a modern era, the definition of insanity may read "Passing up a coach with 11 championship rings, including 5 with your franchise, for a guy with none" but we digress. One definition at a time.)

Mike D'Antoni has had 4 stops in his career as a head coach - with the Nuggets, Suns, Knicks and Lakers. His tenure - from 1998 - 2014, with a few years on hiatus - spans various rule changes and league wide trends. His rosters have oscillated in quality, from stacked to great to good to downright awful. He has coached MVP's, Scoring Champions, Most Improved Players, Defensive Players of the Year, forces of nature, #vino and Keon Clark. Throughout 3 decades, 4 teams and 100's of players, there is still an identifiable constant in Mike D'Antoni's coaching career:

  • 1998-99 Denver Nuggets - Defensive Rating* 29th of 29 - Record 14-36 (50 game season)
  • 2003-4 Phoenix Suns - Defensive Rating 24th of 29 - Record 21-40**
  • 2004-5 Phoenix Suns - Defensive Rating 17th of 30 - Record 62-20
  • 2005-6 Phoenix Suns - Defensive Rating 16th of 30 - Record 54-28
  • 2006-7 Phoenix Suns - Defensive Rating 13th of 30 - Record 61-21
  • 2007-8 Phoenix Suns - Defensive Rating 16th of 30 - Record 55-27
  • 2008-9 New York Knicks - Defensive Rating 23rd of 30 - Record 32-50
  • 2009-10 New York Knicks - Defensive Rating 27th of 30 - Record 29-53
  • 2010-11 New York Knicks - Defensive Rating 22nd of 30 - Record 42-40
  • 2011-12 New York Knicks - Defensive Rating N/A - Record 18-24***
  • 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers - Defensive Rating 20th of 30 - Record 40-32****
  • 2013-14 Los Angeles Lakers - Defensive Rating 27th of 30 - Record 22-42*****
* Defensive Rating captures the amount of points a team allows per 100 possessions. All stats courtesy of the gurus over at basketball-reference.com
** Took over 21 games into season
*** Fired after 42 games. Defensive Rating unavailable for his tenure only
**** Took over 10 games into season
***** Season currently underway

In just one season has a D'Antoni coached team finished in the top half of the NBA in Defensive Rating, despite many of those teams winning 50 and even 60 games. Outside of an average 4 year run in Phoenix, opposing teams have scored in bundles against his.

Long held conventional wisdom states that in playoff basketball, it's not offense that wins series and championships, but defense. The numbers certainly agree and D'Antoni is living proof - 0 Finals appearances in 13 years on the job.

The question we'd like answered is what the Lakers were expecting when hiring D'Antoni? If it was anything other than below-average-to-atrocious defense and a pre-Finals exit from the playoffs, providing a prime Steve Nash or equivalent could carry the team there to begin with, then they truly are insane.

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